Turkey's New Headache: India Hits Back
In a significant escalation of tensions, India has taken a series of measures to counter Turkey's growing assertiveness, marking a new low in bilateral relations. The move comes after Turkey's repeated criticism of India's handling of the Kashmir issue and its support for Pakistan. India's response is multifaceted, involving diplomatic, economic, and strategic measures that aim to isolate Turkey and undermine its influence in the region.
One of the first signs of India's displeasure was the exclusion of Turkey from a briefing on Operation Sindoor, a military operation, that involved 70 foreign service attachés. This was followed by a review of India's multi-billion-dollar trade ties with Turkey, including Turkish involvement in infrastructure projects such as metro rail and airport services. The Indian government is considering a gradual economic disengagement from Turkey, which could have significant implications for Turkish businesses operating in India.
In another move, academic institutions such as Jamia Millia Islamia, Lovely Professional University, Jawaharlal Nehru University, and Maulana Azad National Urdu University have suspended memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with their Turkish counterparts. Travel platforms like EaseMyTrip, Cox & Kings, and Ixigo have also halted bookings to Turkey, dealing a blow to the country's tourism industry.
On the diplomatic front, India has launched a social media campaign, including the hashtag #BoycottTurkey, to criticize Turkey's role in the region. The Indian government has also highlighted Turkey's involvement in the killing of two Turkish military operatives during Operation Sindoor. Furthermore, India has engaged in military cooperation with Greece, including joint air force exercises in 2023, and has become a significant arms supplier to Armenia.
In a significant strategic move, India has bolstered ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, key players in the Muslim world that Turkey has often antagonized. In 2023, India scrapped a naval shipbuilding deal with a Turkish defense firm, marking a major setback for Turkey's defense industry.
Meanwhile, Turkey's relations with Europe are also under strain. President Erdogan has threatened to "part ways with the EU" as Turkey proposes to bypass Europe with a new trade corridor. This move has been seen as a challenge to the EU's dominance in the region and has raised concerns about Turkey's growing assertiveness.
In contrast, India has been strengthening its ties with Cyprus, a key player in the Eastern Mediterranean. After a gap of over two decades, an Indian Prime Minister visited Cyprus, marking a new era in bilateral relations. Cyprus was quick to condemn the Pulwama terror attack in 2019 and has extended support to India on several occasions. India has contributed three force commanders to the UN peacekeeping force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) since 1964 and has always called on Turkey to implement the Cyprus UNSC resolution.
The India-Cyprus relationship is expected to play a key role in the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), which was announced at the Delhi 2023 G20 Summit. Cyprus is set to hold the presidency of the Council of the EU in the first half of 2026, and its electricity linkup with Israel via an undersea cable is seen as a key component of the IMEC.
India has also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Cyprus to introduce Unified Payments Interface (UPI) services in Cyprus for cross-border transactions. Cyprus has invested heavily in India, with a cumulative total of $8.328 billion between April 2000 and September 2015, making it the eighth largest FDI investor in India.
The India-Cyprus-Israel axis is expected to benefit from cooperation in defense, technology, and energy. The three countries are exploring opportunities for co-development and investment in areas such as loitering munitions, drones, and cyber technologies.
In another significant development, India has signed a MoU with Croatia for defense cooperation, signaling its intent to expand ties with the Southeast European nation. Croatia is strategically important due to its location in the Balkans, and India's engagement with the country is seen as a counterbalance to Turkey's influence in the region.
India's opportunity to counter Turkey's influence lies in its ability to leverage its relationships with countries such as Greece, Cyprus, and Croatia. The Kurdish separatist movement in Turkey, which accounts for 15-20% of the Turkish population, is another factor that India can use to its advantage. The Aegean Sea dispute between Turkey and Greece is another area where India can play a role, given its growing ties with Greece.
To take advantage of these opportunities, India must adopt a multi-pronged approach. This includes diplomatic snubs, targeted trade restrictions, and building intel sharing networks with countries such as Greece and Cyprus. India must also promote anti-drone systems to showcase the vulnerabilities of Turkish drones and focus on the IMEC to remove Turkey's gateway role.
Furthermore, India must publicly recognize the Armenian genocide, aligning with over 30 nations, to pressure Turkey morally and diplomatically. Indian firms must be directed to redirect investments in Turkey, and security checks for Turkish citizens must be intensified. The EU is a great partner in this endeavor, and India must leverage its relationships with European countries to counter Turkey's influence.
In conclusion, India's response to Turkey's assertiveness marks a new era in bilateral relations. India's multifaceted approach, involving diplomatic, economic, and strategic measures, aims to isolate Turkey and undermine its influence in the region. As India strengthens its ties with countries such as Cyprus, Greece, and Croatia, it is well-positioned to counter Turkey and protect its interests in the region.
